In November, voters in all five states will vote on Trump’s virtually hand-picked candidate in the Republican primary. This includes Republican Senate candidates for Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, as well as gubernatorial candidates for all five of his states except Georgia. Governor Brian Kemp, who is seeking reelection, is at odds with the former president.)
Across these tipping states, the success or failure of Trump’s cookie-cutter Republican nominee could provide important insight into the former president’s own viability in 2024. This fall, even in an environment that favors Republicans overall, there are serious questions about Trump’s ability to retake these key states in 2024.
A political scientist at Emory University says that if Trump doesn’t win in those states, “the midterm elections, which are supposed to be a good year for you, are usually going to be better for the party you’re running for than in the previous presidential election.” Asks Alan Abramowitz, ‘Why do we expect better results in a presidential year’ for Trump himself?
Still, many operatives on both sides think Trump’s hold on the Republican Party is so stifling that it’s unlikely the Republicans will seriously discuss his influence.
Jason Lowe, a Michigan-based Republican consultant and former secretary general of the state Republican Party, said, “If it were possible, I would have that conversation after losing two Georgia Senate seats. ‘ said. “In reality, he doesn’t seem to be held accountable for his role in our defeats, but only celebrated for his victories.”
Of course, those five states aren’t the only places Trump-backed candidates will face voters in November. But the outcome could be particularly revealing, as those states are very likely to again be tipping points in his 2024 presidential election. In 2020, four of them were painfully close for him. Biden won by less than 1% of him in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, and was just behind him in Pennsylvania. Only in Michigan did he have room to breathe with his points margin nearly three percent. Operatives from both parties expect all five companies to be very close again in 2024.
Trump left his fingerprints in all five major constituencies this fall. His endorsement gave power to the Republican Senate nominations of Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker of Georgia, and Blake Masters of Arizona. His embrace also lifted Republican gubernatorial candidates such as Tudor Dixon of Michigan, Doug Mastriano of Pennsylvania, Tim Michels of Wisconsin and Kari Lake of Arizona.
For Republicans, Trump’s rise in visibility this year is, at best, a mixed blessing. Democratic strategists, however, believe that Trump’s key role in the selection and promotion of these candidates makes Trump very unique. This undermined an earlier tendency among many centrist and swing voters to separate their views about him from their feelings about other Republicans.Selinda Lake, Democratic pollster said in her focus groups, more voters are expressing their frustration at Trump’s hijacking of the Republican Party. “They are really surprised that the rebels and people who helped attack the country on January 6 are running for office,” she says. “His faction is seen as hijacked, and many voters don’t understand why the Republican Party allowed this, but they feel it must stop now.”
Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg similarly said that the party’s improvement in many campaigns this summer was not a “retreat” from the Republicans, but “toward the 2018 or 2020 norm.” “The return of During the early years of Biden’s presidency, she said, “I saw the independents leaving and the enthusiasm waning among Democrats.”But now, with the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the constitutional right to abortion, “and with Trump’s kind of rule, I’ve seen changes among independents, young people, college-educated women. where they were [in 2018 and 2020] and surpass it. ”
Yet no matter how close the final outcome may be, Republican strategist John Thomas believes that most of the Trump-backed candidates will likely lose in a year that started very promising for the Republican Party. “I think it’s a bat signal for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis,” he said. Let’s fight Trump on an equal footing in the primaries.” Such a loss, especially to DeSantis, said, “We love Trump, he’s been great, but he’s past his prime and must go back to winning.” ‘Thomas argues ‘Stand up against Trump’. The problem, Thomas admits, is that he “doesn’t know” whether the party will have the courage to challenge Trump’s rule, whatever the outcome.
Why Law, former secretary general of the Michigan Republican Party, argues that Trump could serve a larger base and outperform the endorsed candidates in those states in 2024 Another argument for Trump in three particularly important Rust Belt states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—is that, since 1988, no Republican presidential candidate has been a candidate for president in those states. He said he has not found a formula to win any of them. Candidate Trump’s loss in November would be a clear warning sign for the Republican Party. I think it’s going to be a lot harder,” Law says.
Still, Low said that even a highly disappointing interim result would invite a lot of backlash against Trump as his supporters now make up a very dominant faction within the party. I don’t think Rather than view the defeat as voters’ disavowal of Trump, Lake, a Democratic pollster, said his supporters and the candidate himself “doubled down” on Trump’s unjustified fraud allegations in 2020. “These Republicans say that if their people lose, it’s a legitimate election,” she says. “In fact, I’m sure they won’t.” Personally, some Republican strategists predict the same.
This possibility explains why Trump’s influence in the Republican Party could solidify after November. If his nominee wins, Trump will surely credit him and claim to prove his ability to retake these states and the White House in 2024. Go deep into his rabbit hole of election denial and conspiracy theories. In recent years, little has suggested that mainstream Republican leaders would forcefully deny such allegations. That is, even if voters sent warning signals in his November, the Republican Party’s exit from Trump’s shadow in his 2024 is likely to prove as difficult as in 2022. I mean