These five states could send a powerful message for 2024. But will Republicans hear it?

In November, voters in all five states will vote on Trump’s virtually hand-picked candidate in the Republican primary. This includes Republican Senate candidates for Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, as well as gubernatorial candidates for all five of his states except Georgia. Governor Brian Kemp, who is seeking reelection, is at odds with the former president.)

Across these tipping states, the success or failure of Trump’s cookie-cutter Republican nominee could provide important insight into the former president’s own viability in 2024. This fall, even in an environment that favors Republicans overall, there are serious questions about Trump’s ability to retake these key states in 2024.

A political scientist at Emory University says that if Trump doesn’t win in those states, “the midterm elections, which are supposed to be a good year for you, are usually going to be better for the party you’re running for than in the previous presidential election.” Asks Alan Abramowitz, ‘Why do we expect better results in a presidential year’ for Trump himself?

Still, many operatives on both sides think Trump’s hold on the Republican Party is so stifling that it’s unlikely the Republicans will seriously discuss his influence.

Jason Lowe, a Michigan-based Republican consultant and former secretary general of the state Republican Party, said, “If it were possible, I would have that conversation after losing two Georgia Senate seats. ‘ said. “In reality, he doesn’t seem to be held accountable for his role in our defeats, but only celebrated for his victories.”

Of course, those five states aren’t the only places Trump-backed candidates will face voters in November. But the outcome could be particularly revealing, as those states are very likely to again be tipping points in his 2024 presidential election. In 2020, four of them were painfully close for him. Biden won by less than 1% of him in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, and was just behind him in Pennsylvania. Only in Michigan did he have room to breathe with his points margin nearly three percent. Operatives from both parties expect all five companies to be very close again in 2024.

Trump left his fingerprints in all five major constituencies this fall. His endorsement gave power to the Republican Senate nominations of Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker of Georgia, and Blake Masters of Arizona. His embrace also lifted Republican gubernatorial candidates such as Tudor Dixon of Michigan, Doug Mastriano of Pennsylvania, Tim Michels of Wisconsin and Kari Lake of Arizona.

Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson and Georgia Governor Kemp are the only two Republican candidates to stand a distance from Trump in races across the five major states. And even Johnson has repeatedly embraced Trump-like conspiracy theories about both the coronavirus and the 2020 election, defending the integrity of his 2020 election results in Georgia and saying that Trump will vote this year. Kemp, who defeated the first challenger to support, indicated He welcomed the former president’s endorsement and will endorse him if he becomes the Republican nominee again in 2024.
Meanwhile, Trump’s backed candidates have repeated (or at least refused to admit) his lies about the 2020 election results and closely resemble his style. , regularly slashing at the Republican establishment. Since the primaries, some of Trump’s backed candidates have tried to move their positions a little closer to the center (most overt master), but still highlights arguments likely to feature heavily in his campaign in 2024. Proven With Mastriano and Oz weekend at the Pennsylvania Rally, he’ll likely be in person at many of those races by November.

For Republicans, Trump’s rise in visibility this year is, at best, a mixed blessing. Democratic strategists, however, believe that Trump’s key role in the selection and promotion of these candidates makes Trump very unique. This undermined an earlier tendency among many centrist and swing voters to separate their views about him from their feelings about other Republicans.Selinda Lake, Democratic pollster said in her focus groups, more voters are expressing their frustration at Trump’s hijacking of the Republican Party. “They are really surprised that the rebels and people who helped attack the country on January 6 are running for office,” she says. “His faction is seen as hijacked, and many voters don’t understand why the Republican Party allowed this, but they feel it must stop now.”

Both Biden and Trump are entering the final stages of their campaigns in relatively weak positions across the five major states. A series of polls conducted in those states this summer rarely saw Biden’s approval ratings well above her 40%. In most of these polls, Trump’s personal likeability ratings were slightly higher, but in each state a majority of respondents still said they disliked him. Most were before this summer’s polls showed Biden’s national approval ratings had risen. Trump recession Among all the accusations that haunt him.
Resistance to Trump in these states may help Democrats offset Biden’s the latest Marquette University Law School PollWisconsin’s Democratic Senate candidate, Mandela Burns, for example, wins nearly a fifth of voters who say they disapprove of Biden’s performance. One of her reasons for that is that voters in the poll were slightly more likely to voice an opinion unfavorable to Trump than to Biden, with Burns leading Johnson by nearly 65% ​​among voters hostile to the former president. is to be Despite a clear majority of Wisconsin voters saying they disapprove of Biden’s performance, the overall combination left Barnes with an unexpectedly comfortable lead over Johnson in the poll.
Most encouraging for Democrats is the sign that voters are splitting along familiar lines from victories in these states in 2018 and 2020. These two elections: youth, voters of color, metropolitan area residents, and college-educated white voters, especially women. David Bergstein, his director of communications for the Democratic Senate Election Committee, said, especially in large suburban areas around cities such as Philadelphia, Atlanta and Phoenix. cement Even after Trump’s defeat in 2020, voters “have not lost their disdain for Trump and MAGAism. For voters, seeing a candidate with a red hat is something they left behind in the past.” It is a symbol of and I don’t particularly want to remember it.”

Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg similarly said that the party’s improvement in many campaigns this summer was not a “retreat” from the Republicans, but “toward the 2018 or 2020 norm.” “The return of During the early years of Biden’s presidency, she said, “I saw the independents leaving and the enthusiasm waning among Democrats.”But now, with the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the constitutional right to abortion, “and with Trump’s kind of rule, I’ve seen changes among independents, young people, college-educated women. where they were [in 2018 and 2020] and surpass it. ”

Democrat victory in these battleground states is not guaranteed. Opinion polls look promising in some of these districts (especially Michigan gubernatorial, Arizona senate, and Pennsylvania gubernatorial and senate races).But these states are all close in nature, and even small shifts in voter turnout, such as lower youth turnout, a slight encroachment of the Democratic Party by Latino men and/or blue-collar whites, and more, can lead to Republican Some Republicans such as pollsters Patrick Ruffinipredicts that the election will eventually return to the traditional ditch, with Biden’s negative assessments of his performance and economy proving a decisive force. Few people on either side would be surprised if they did. Put it on,” he says, “I can’t imagine anyone winning.”

Yet no matter how close the final outcome may be, Republican strategist John Thomas believes that most of the Trump-backed candidates will likely lose in a year that started very promising for the Republican Party. “I think it’s a bat signal for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis,” he said. Let’s fight Trump on an equal footing in the primaries.” Such a loss, especially to DeSantis, said, “We love Trump, he’s been great, but he’s past his prime and must go back to winning.” ‘Thomas argues ‘Stand up against Trump’. The problem, Thomas admits, is that he “doesn’t know” whether the party will have the courage to challenge Trump’s rule, whatever the outcome.

Why Law, former secretary general of the Michigan Republican Party, argues that Trump could serve a larger base and outperform the endorsed candidates in those states in 2024 Another argument for Trump in three particularly important Rust Belt states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—is that, since 1988, no Republican presidential candidate has been a candidate for president in those states. He said he has not found a formula to win any of them. Candidate Trump’s loss in November would be a clear warning sign for the Republican Party. I think it’s going to be a lot harder,” Law says.

Still, Low said that even a highly disappointing interim result would invite a lot of backlash against Trump as his supporters now make up a very dominant faction within the party. I don’t think Rather than view the defeat as voters’ disavowal of Trump, Lake, a Democratic pollster, said his supporters and the candidate himself “doubled down” on Trump’s unjustified fraud allegations in 2020. “These Republicans say that if their people lose, it’s a legitimate election,” she says. “In fact, I’m sure they won’t.” Personally, some Republican strategists predict the same.

This possibility explains why Trump’s influence in the Republican Party could solidify after November. If his nominee wins, Trump will surely credit him and claim to prove his ability to retake these states and the White House in 2024. Go deep into his rabbit hole of election denial and conspiracy theories. In recent years, little has suggested that mainstream Republican leaders would forcefully deny such allegations. That is, even if voters sent warning signals in his November, the Republican Party’s exit from Trump’s shadow in his 2024 is likely to prove as difficult as in 2022. I mean


Scroll to Top