of FiveThirtyEight election model In 70 out of 100 election simulations, we found that Democrats will have a majority after 2022. economist model Even more optimistic for the party, in 78 of the 100 simulations, the Democrats maintained their majority in November.
Both models consider polls, demographics, funding, and historical data to predict what will happen two months from now.It is worth noting that these predictions are based on likely The results and their predictive power depend on how good the underlying data are. So, in his 30 percent or so of the scenarios in which each model runs, the Republicans win a majority in the Senate. In interpreting these numbers, FiveThirtyEight characterizes the odds as slightly favored for Democrats to win the Senate. In short, be careful not to take these models for granted.
FiveThirtyEight and The Economist say the disparity in candidate quality between Democrats and Republicans plays a key role in the broader battle for the majority in explaining why the Democratic Party’s odds have improved recently. points out.
That assessment is consistent with one recently provided by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. McConnell said Republicans were more likely to overthrow the House than the Senate (he is right). and added this: “Senator elections are different. They’re statewide. Candidate quality has a lot to do with results.”
This resulted in a not-so-subtle denunciation from Senator Rick Scott, who runs the Senate Republican campaign division.
“Unfortunately, many of those responsible for losing the Senate last cycle are trying to stop them from winning a majority this time by trash-talking the Republican candidate. Scott wrote in an op-ed It was published in the Washington Examiner last week. “This is an act of astonishing cowardice and, ultimately, an act of treason against a conservative cause.”
(Sidebar: Scott he said it wasn’t I am writing about McConnell. If you believe so, I have some Blockbuster stock that you might want to buy.)
A look at some of the most competitive Senate elections in the country speaks for itself.
* Arizona: Republican nominee Blake Masters has rushed away from his primary position since winning the party’s nomination in early August with the backing of former President Donald Trump.Masters has dropped some of his more extreme positions on the issue of abortion from his websitefor example, his campaign claims that the policies section of his website is a “living document” that candidates update themselves.
* Georgia: Republican Herschel Walker won the primary thanks to his time as a football player and the celebrity endowed by Trump’s endorsement. But this is Walker’s first run for elected office of any kind, and it’s proven.question about his resume A regular feature of general elections, Democrats are just now open opposition research book About Walker’s controversial past.
* Ohio: Trump-backed JD Vance seems to be AWOL Since his first victory, he has strayed from the campaign track, effectively ceding considerable ground to Democrat Tim Ryan. We ran a barrage of ads. Here’s what you need to know about Republican concerns about the race. Another $28 million In television and radio ads, trying to keep the seat in Republican hands.
* pennsylvania: Dr. Mehmet Oz — please stop if you’ve heard this before — won the Republican nomination thanks to Trump’s endorsement, but was on the defensive for most of the general election.As a result, The Cook Report with recent Amy Walter I have shifted my rating of the race from “toss-up” to “lean Democrats.”Oz has regained his footing in recent weeks in attacks on John Fetterman for refusing to debate after he suffered a stroke in mid-May, but Fetterman took the issue to the next level. his oath on wednesday Coming in October with Oz.
The salvation for Republicans is that there is still plenty of time before Election Day. The average voter is just entering the campaign season now that Labor Day is over. And candidates can improve on the trail. (For example, Walker currently a more professional team around him Reduced what it once looked like gaffes almost every day.)
But what is clear as of today is that Democrats are at the forefront of the battle for the Senate majority. This is a big change from 3 months ago and a surprise.